With help from Eli Okun and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss Trump's uneasy relationship with the GOP as we enter a year of pivotal elections.
Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, staring up at gray January skies and counting the days until spring. Get in touch.
THE DAYS ARE LONG, BUT THE YEARS ARE SHORT: Somehow, today marks the fifth anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and you can expect reams of coverage across your feeds throughout the day. As Dasha notes on the Playbook Podcast this morning, the near-total unity of outrage and condemnation we witnessed in the aftermath feels long ago now, almost from another era. Today D.C., and much of America, is deeply divided about what happened.
That lack of consensus represents a triumph, of sorts, for Donald Trump, and stands as testament to his unmatched ability both to reshape political narratives and to carry his supporters to extraordinary positions. But it's still Democrats who are keenest to remember and relitigate what happened. To that end, House Dems are holding a presentation at the Capitol starting at 10 a.m., with witnesses including former Capitol Police officer Winston Pingeon, Brendan Ballou, a former DOJ prosecutor who worked on Jan. 6 cases, and the Jan. 6 rioter who famously refused Trump's pardon, Pamela Hemphill. POLITICO's Nick Wu has the full list.
But even as that unfolds, many of those directly responsible for the attack will be gathering en masse in the streets outside. In split-screen action so pointed you can scarcely believe it's happening, scores of now-pardoned J6 protesters will gather from 11:45 a.m. for a march to the Capitol starting -- where else? -- at the Ellipse. It's being touted as a memorial for Ashli Babbitt, who was shot and killed by police as she tried to illegally enter the Capitol. (For context, the NYT has a great piece on how many freed J6ers remain consumed with anger and obsessed with conspiracy theories about what happened.)
What could go wrong? "This will be a PATRIOTIC and PEACEFUL march," former Proud Boys chief Enrique Tarrio wrote on X. "See you there!" Convicted of seditious conspiracy, Tarrio was sentenced to prison until 2045 until Trump intervened.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The sweeping nature of the clemency Trump handed out to Jan. 6 participants last year may have had unintended consequences, POLITICO's Ankush Khardori writes today. Ankush floats the idea that Trump may also have inadvertently pardoned Brian Cole Jr. -- the man now accused by the Justice Department of planting pipe bombs outside the DNC and RNC headquarters the night before Jan. 6.
Read it and weep: Trump's proclamation granted "a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all other individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021," Ankush notes. So might a judge decide that also covers the pipebomb case? We shall see. "Lawyers for Cole did not respond to a question about whether they intend to argue that Cole is entitled to a pardon if convicted," Ankush writes.
Today's other essential read comes via POLITICO's legal ace Kyle Cheney, who explores how Jan. 6 and its aftermath ultimately laid the ground for the Trump 2.0 project. "Trump learned in the final days of his first term that the Constitution is riddled with ambiguities, loopholes and untested limits. And in the years since, he learned it's nearly impossible to punish a president who decides to test them," Kyle writes. "Trump 2.0 has been the expression of that lesson."
In today's Playbook ...
-- Trump talks 2026 strategy with the GOP.
-- But Venezuela remains top of mind for all concerned.
-- And which famous spouse is running for Congress today? Read on.
CENTER OF ATTENTION: Trump will address House Republicans at the (newly renamed) Kennedy Center this morning for a start-of-election-year rally, as GOP lawmakers gather to discuss their 2026 strategy. Health care policy and cost-of-living issues will take center stage, POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill reports, with White House pollsters having advised House Republicans to focus on affordability ahead of the November elections.
The problem: Top of mind for all those present will instead be Trump's intervention in Venezuela, 72 hours after the audacious capture of Nicolás Maduro. Expect plenty more bragging today about the (undeniably) bold decision to go after Maduro, and the stunning U.S. military prowess which pulled it off. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described the mission last night as "one of the greatest foreign policy and military achievements the United States of America has ever seen," which gives a sense of how this episode is going to be framed by the White House.
Nervy crowd: Far more interesting will be what else Trump has to say today about Venezuela -- and in particular, his plans for the aftermath. Trump's pledge to "run" Venezuela for as long as he deems necessary -- not to mention his refusal to rule out U.S. boots on the ground -- is making plenty of Republicans jumpy. As is the surprising decision to allow Maduro's allies and cronies to remain in power. It's worth noting that even as they heap near-universal praise on Trump's decision to target Maduro, senior GOP figures are publicly calling for democracy to swiftly return.
Two examples: Sen Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told Fox News last night he is "hopeful" that "free and fair elections" will happen "in short order." And Speaker Mike Johnson used the exact same phrase last night after attending a high-level congressional briefing on Venezuela led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Overall, Johnson seemed happy with what he heard from Rubio & co., telling reporters afterward that he does not expect to see U.S. troops on the ground, that he expects little direct U.S. involvement beyond the coercion of Maduro's cronies and that this was not, in fact, a "regime change" operation.
The problem, as Playbook set out yesterday, is that Trump and Rubio are saying wildly different things on all this. And crucially, Trump has offered no timetable whatsoever about when or how democracy might return. As POLITICO's Nahal Toosi and colleagues revealed last night, Trump's three key demands for acting president Delcy Rodriguez cover oil, drugs and the removal of Iranian and Cuban operatives. The return of democracy did not make the cut.
Alarm bells: It's always a clear endeavor for politicians to grab Trump's attention when they start popping up on Sean Hannity's evening show. So it was striking to see the Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado choose Hannity last night for her first public appearance since Maduro's arrest.
How do you solve a problem like María? Trump, of course, raised eyebrows at the weekend by quickly dismissing Machado's prospects of taking power. A WaPo report claimed this was because he's still grumpy that she received last year's Nobel Peace Prize -- though the WSJ reveals the real issue was a CIA report that concluded Maduro's allies were simply better placed to maintain stability. The NYT has further details, suggesting Machado's relationship with Trump's envoy Richard Grenell markedly deteriorated in the weeks leading up to Saturday's attack.
Whatever the reason, Machado is clearly unhappy to be sidelined, and used her appearance on Hannity last night to follow the classic Trump Diplomacy playbook, which foreign leaders have repeatedly deployed during Oval Office visits this year. First came the inevitable flattery -- "I do want to say today, on behalf of the Venezuelan people, how grateful we are for [Trump's] courageous vision, the historical actions he has taken against this narco-terrorist regime," she gushed.
And then came the offer of an eye-catching gift: in this case, her actual Nobel prize. "It hasn't happened yet," she replied, when asked by Hannity if she'd offered to give Trump her award. "But I certainly would love to be able to personally tell him that we believe -- the Venezuelan people, because this is a prize of the Venezuelan people -- certainly want to give it to him and share it with him." Yes, diplomacy actually works like this while Trump is in the White House.
While Machado pleads for democracy, the leaders of other nations and territories feeling threatened by Trump are watching on with concern. POLITICO's Megan Messerly reports that Mexican officials are feeling nervous about the prospect of sudden U.S. intervention targeting the drugs trade, which they fear could plunge the country into wider chaos.
Even more worried are the Europeans, given Trump's renewed interest in Danish-owned Greenland. POLITICO's Eli Stokols reveals this morning that the White House "has shown little interest in an overture last year from Denmark's prime minister offering the U.S. the option to increase its military presence in Greenland, where it already operates a base and has long deployed troops at liberty." A European defense official tells Eli: "The option of more U.S. military presence has been on the table. The White House is not interested."
What action in Greenland could actually look like: The Economist reports U.S. officials have been considering bypassing Denmark and offering Greenland a "Compact of Free Association," a type of agreement it has historically extended to small nations in the Pacific. "COFAs let American armed forces operate freely in signatory countries," the Economist notes, "with the added sweetener of duty-free trade."
TRAIL MIX
NEW THIS MORNING: George Conway is officially running for Congress. The lawyer and former Republican -- who became a prominent Trump critic as then-wife Kellyanne Conway worked in the White House -- today launched a House bid as a Democrat in New York's 12th District. This is the Manhattan open seat that has elicited a crowded and unusually high-profile field of aspirants. In his launch video, Conway frames his campaign around fighting for democracy and the rule of law: "I know how to fight these people. They are corrupt, amoral people. They will stop at nothing to rig the system for themselves." Watch the video here
Another notable launch: In Montana's 1st District, smokejumper and union leader Sam Forstag kicked off a Democratic bid to unseat GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, CBS' Hunter Woodall scooped. Forstag is leaning into economic populism in his messaging, though he'll have to get through a competitive primary first.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Survey says: A new poll from the Senate GOP leadership-aligned One Nation finds John E. Sununu with a sizable lead over Scott Brown in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary, 49 percent to 30 percent. Top Senate Republicans have embraced Sununu as their best bet in the race; the survey from Guidant Polling and Strategy shows Sununu trailing Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas by 3 points, while Brown is down by 11.
MINNESOTA FALLOUT: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's stunning decision to drop his reelection bid yesterday amid a state fraud scandal puts the spotlight on Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who's weighing a bid for St. Paul. AG Keith Ellison and Secretary of State Steve Simon could also be in the mix on the Democratic side, The Minnesota Star Tribune's Allison Kite and colleagues report, though it sounds like Simon will stay put if Klobuchar runs. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are staying focused on their Senate campaigns, per Semafor's Burgess Everett.
CASH DASH: As fourth-quarter fundraising reports roll in, a few statewide contenders have posted notable numbers. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) ended the year with more than $15 million on hand, continuing to outpace his competitors in the Senate primary, per Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick. In Maine, Graham Platner pulled in $4.7 million for his Democratic Senate campaign, undimmed by scandal, Axios' Holly Otterbein and Hans Nichols report. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) reported raising $1 million for his gubernatorial campaign, though half of that was a loan from himself.
LOOMING IN THE BACKGROUND: "A Supreme Court Case Could Rock Campaigns This Year," by NOTUS' Alex Roarty: "Even before the year began, Democrats and Republican strategists began sketching out how the SCOTUS ruling -- which could allow for nearly unlimited coordination between party committees and individual candidates and give big donors more influence -- would affect their operations. It's causing them to rethink on-the-ground strategies, staffing decisions and how TV and digital ads are funded. In interviews, they described what they said could be the biggest set of changes to how elections operate since 2010's Citizens United decision."
UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN
TWO AMERICANS IN PARIS: Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in Paris today to meet with European leaders about the war in Ukraine, as negotiators seem to be close to finalizing an accord on security guarantees the U.S. would provide Kyiv after the war, Bloomberg's Alex Wickham and colleagues preview. The "coalition of the willing" meeting of Ukraine's allies, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, will also include British PM Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte among dozens of leaders.
What's in the works: Europeans are much happier with the U.S. than they were just a few weeks ago, as the Americans commit to stronger security guarantees for Ukraine that might include intelligence to help monitor the peace and even the presence of some U.S. troops. "We have succeeded in this exercise of reconvergence between Ukraine, Europe, and America," a French official told POLITICO's Laura Kayali. The length of the guarantees will also be an important factor: The plan includes 15 years, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has floated the prospect of a backstop as long as 50 years.
But but but: Even if Ukraine and the West reach an agreement on security guarantees, it remains to be seen whether Russia will accept it. And other thorny issues, especially how much territory Ukraine may have to cede to the occupying Russians, remain.
ICYMI: Trump executed a rare about-face on Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend, telling reporters that after U.S. officials investigated, they do not believe Ukraine sent a drone attack against one of Putin's residences. Trump had initially said he was "very angry" about the allegation when Russia asserted it last week. More from the AP
BEST OF THE REST
STAT OF THE DAY: "DOJ says millions of Epstein files have yet to be released," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "The department says it's released less than 1 percent of the total documents."
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Ethics watch: Emil Bove over the past year has gone from Trump's personal criminal defense attorney, to a top DOJ official, to a sitting federal judge. "One thing that hasn't changed, according to critics: his fidelity to his former client," POLITICO's Erica Orden writes this morning. "Since taking the bench on the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals in September, Bove has taken a handful of actions that many legal experts say are unorthodox -- if not unethical -- for a sitting judge."
SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: The House Rules Committee will meet at 6:45 p.m. to tee up a "minibus" of three appropriations bills that would keep the government partially funded past January, ahead of an expected House floor vote this week. But it's not all smooth sailing: Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) haven't backed down from their minibus delay in the Senate, a protest against Trump's targeting of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Semafor's Burgess Everett scooped.
More on the Hill: The House will likely vote Thursday to override Trump's vetoes of two bipartisan bills regarding the Miccosukee Tribe in Florida and a water project in Colorado, POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill scooped. If they succeed, the votes would be an unusual rebuke of Trump by at least some Republicans. But it remains unclear whether the overrides could gather enough support in the Senate. ... An Office of Congressional Conduct report alleged that Brandon Phillips, who's been chief of staff to Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), illegally used office resources to hire a woman to whom he was romantically linked as an intern, per POLITICO's Hailey Fuchs. Collins' office decried this as a "bogus complaint" and "meritless allegations."
TRUMP VS. SCIENCE: In HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s most sweeping anti-vaccine move yet, the CDC announced that it will immediately upend the childhood vaccine schedule and stop recommending several shots for many babies and kids, per WaPo. HHS framed the change as aligning with recommendations in some other countries like Denmark. But medical groups said the populations weren't comparable -- and they slammed Kennedy's changes as running counter to science and dangerous for children's health. The CDC flouted its typical evidence-based process, which relies on independent advisers, to make the change.
On the chopping block: No longer recommended for all children are the shots against flu, rotavirus, meningococcal disease and hepatitis A, as the administration instead encourages parents to make those decisions in conjunction with their doctors. The CDC also switched to recommending just one dose of the HPV vaccine. Experts broadly warned that the moves, while framed as helping to restore confidence in vaccines, are likely to undermine it.
Too little, too late: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who provided the decisive vote to install Kennedy at HHS, decried the change, saying it "will cause unnecessary fear for patients and doctors, and will make America sicker."
That's not all: Trump posted an almost entirely all-caps Truth Social message with a series of medical exhortations that many doctors and public health experts have said largely lack evidence, from telling pregnant women to avoid Tylenol to calling for vaccines to be split up.
END OF AN ERA: "Corporation for Public Broadcasting is officially shutting down months after GOP funding cuts," by NBC's Rebecca Shabad: "CPB's board of directors voted to dissolve the private, nonprofit corporation after 58 years of service ... [T]he organization said it would distribute all of its remaining funds."
Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry and Michael Bloomberg were among those paying their respects to the late Tatiana Schlossberg, along with many members of her Kennedy family, at a private funeral yesterday.
Dan Bongino indicated that his show may be returning soon and described working in the Trump administration as "an otherworldly experience."
IN MEMORIAM -- "David R. Young, 89, Is Dead; Nixon Aide Helped Steer the 'Plumbers,'" by NYT's Robert McFadden: "He took part in White House machinations to stop leaks of classified information by overseeing an investigative unit that resorted to burglary. He then cooperated with Watergate investigators."
MONEY MONEY MONEY -- The U.S. Mint rolled out images of new 250th-anniversary designs of the quarter, nickel and dime, per the Washington Examiner's Jenny Goldsberry. (President Donald Trump is not among those featured on the quarter, as had been previously floated.)
PLAYBOOK ARCHITECTURE SECTION -- Administration officials will present their latest White House ballroom plans to the public Thursday at the National Capital Planning Commission, NYT's Luke Broadwater reports.
PHOTO OF THE DAY -- NYT's Doug Mills snapped a stunning picture of fireworks above the Washington Monument last night. See it here
LIFESTYLES OF THE RICH AND FAMOUS -- "Billionaire Larry Ellison Sells $45 Million Home on San Francisco's Gold Coast," by WSJ's Sarah Tilton: "Designed by architect William Wurster around 1958, the modern, roughly 10,742-square-foot-home has five bedrooms ... Floor-to-ceiling windows look out at the Golden Gate Bridge and the San Francisco Bay. An interior garden courtyard sits behind the stainless-steel garage doors."
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Independent Women has selected its roster of 2026 visiting fellows: Diana Banister, Beth Herman, Anna Pingel, Sydney Rodman, Alina Voss and Sarah Wilder. The organization has also added Rebecca Burgess, Angela Morabito and Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu as senior fellows.
MEDIA MOVES -- Benjy Sarlin is now a senior editor for policy, politics and ideas at Vox. He previously worked at WaPo and is a Semafor and NBC alum. ... Sarah Lynch is joining CBS as a senior Justice Department reporter. She previously worked at Reuters. ... Jeremiah Poff is now op-ed editor at WaPo. He previously worked at the Washington Examiner.
TRANSITIONS -- Anna Bahr will be comms director for NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, NYT's Sally Goldenberg and Benjamin Oreskes scooped. She previously has worked for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). ... Ryan Dilworth is joining Invariant's economic policy team. He previously worked for Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) and is a Bob Gibbs alum. ... Matt Boggs is now founder and principal of strategic comms firm MDB Advisory Group. He previously worked at DHS. ...
... Channing Lee Foster is now director of government relations at defense tech company HavocAI. She most recently worked at Forterra and is an Invariant alum. ... Stefani Buhajla is now senior director of marketing and comms at Heritage Action. She most recently worked at the Cicero Institute. ... Andre Monette is now a partner in Barnes & Thornburg's environmental department. He previously worked at Best Best & Krieger.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Remy Brim, co-head of BGR Group's health and life science practice, and Stephen Mason, founding partner of Auric Strategies, welcomed Lionel Boyd Mason on Dec. 29.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) and Bob Onder (R-Mo.) ... Eric Trump ... Bloomberg's Kate O'Keeffe ... WSJ's James Taranto ... NBC's Shaquille Brewster ... Terri Fariello of United Airlines ... Kimball Stroud ... POLITICO's Kaitlyn Locke, Christa Marshall, Grace Maalouf and Naomi Zeveloff ... Stuart Siciliano of Brown Advisory ... Kathleen Gayle ... Joe Hagin ... former FBI Director Louis Freeh ... Mandy Bowers ... former FEMA Director James Lee Witt ... Matt Ford ... Abby Gunderson-Schwarz ... David Polyansky ... Air & Space Forces Magazine's Chris Gordon ... Sallie Sorenson of the Herald Group ... Natalie Boyse ... Ellen Rosenblum
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